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Predicciones de la Recesión Latinoamericana de Acuerdo al Banco Mundial

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Predicciones de la Recesion Latinoamericana de Acuerdo al Banco Mundial 

Te interesa saber si tu pais entrara en recesion en el 2020? 

Quiseras saber cuando rebotara la economia local?

 

El efecto del coronavirus abre “nueva dimensión” en las crisis económicas de América Latina, advierte el Banco Mundial en el informe La economía en tiempos del Covid-19 que publicó este pasado lunes.

Que es el Banco Mundial?

Esta conformado por 189 países miembros; con personal de más de 170 países, y trabajan para reducir la pobreza y generar prosperidad compartida en los países en desarrollo.

Actualmente tienen colocados $45,900 millones en ayuda financiera repartida en 12,000 proyectos. 

La actividad económica esta interrumpida no solo por el desarrollo del Covid-19 en potencias extranjeras, pero también la gente ha dejado de trabajar y comerciar para reducir el riesgo de contagio. 

Esta combinación de un shock de demanda, un shock financiero y un shock de oferta no tiene precedentes.

El Banco Mundial anticipó varios escenarios provocados por la pandemia:

Quiebra de empresas: «Muchas se volverán insolventes a medida que continúen enfrentando costos (alquiler, seguros, impuestos, pagos de intereses y similares) mientras sus ingresos colapsan. Una vez que se desata una cadena de quiebras, las consecuencias económicas pueden amplificarse».

Bancos alerta: «Las instituciones financieras pueden estar en riesgo a medida que el servicio de las deudas se debilita, las personas pueden perder la confianza y aumentar sus ahorros de precaución, incluso las empresas solventes pueden suspender sus inversiones».

Los riesgos del confinamiento: «Una congelación temporal de la economía para desacelerar la propagación de la epidemia de covid-19 podría convertirse en un shock permanente y, en lugar de un rápido rebote, podría establecerse una recesión prolongada».

Pese a todo, el Banco Mundial comentó que “es muy difícil pronosticar la magnitud exacta de la recesión que se avecina”.

Lo anterior porque a los efectos de la crisis está la incertidumbre. «Si bien no se puede descartar un rebote rápido de la economía, la magnitud de las interrupciones creadas por la epidemia de covid-19 es tal que los efectos también podrían ser duraderos».

El Banco Mundial pronosticó una contracción de 4.6% del PIB de América Latina en 2020.

Y es que ningún país se libra de la recesión:

  • México -6%.

  • Ecuador -6%.

  • Argentina -5.2%.

  • Brasil -5%.

  • Perú -4.7%.

  • Nicaragua -4.3%.

  • El Salvador -4.3%.

  • Bolivia -3.4%.

  • Chile -3%.

  • Uruguay -2.7%.

  • Colombia -2%.

  • Panamá -2%.

El Banco Mundial no dispone de datos para elaborar previsiones sobre Venezuela.

Mynor Schult con AcademiaVidaFabulosa.com  Video 25

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